HSC Meets in March 2025 To find out what happens to a Mountain Goat in an Avalanche

The Huna Stewardship Council met in March with Goat Researcher Kevin White to learn about goats and their fates in SE Alaska. Kevin has been researching mountain goats for over 20 years with the State of Alaska and University of Alaska Southeast

On Call: Kevin White, Dean Houchen, Elizabeth Figus, Cathy Bolton, Makaylah Hecker, Jennifer Nu, Erica Drahozal, Jeromy Grant, Jackie Dick, Ian Johnson

Here’s a summary of the presentation and conversation:

Background on project – Understanding relationships between mountain goats and avalanches. There are collaborations with researchers throughout US. Funded by ACCAP.

• Climate change is happening quickly in mountain ecosystems. Kind of like what is happening in arctic. This impacts snow, and snow is a major driver landscape altering force.
  • How does snow impact goats? Can be detrimental, but can also providing cooling on hot summer days
  • Snow may also create avalanches – this is an understudied area

• Avalanches create food for goats. May timing also lines up with goat calving.
  • Glide avalanches (all the way to the ground) can expose vegetation
  • Avalanches can provide food but also kill goats
• Goats – sentinels of change in mountain environments. We can learn more about how well mountain environments adapt.
• Goats use mountain areas and steep areas to avoid predators. These extreme environments are risky, and goats reproduce slowly.
  • Animals cannot learn to avoid mortality from avalanches because when it happens it is immediate and almost always lethal. It also is different than mortality from predators or starvation which usually kill old or young animals. Avalanches do not choose, and kill prime age animals.
  • Most avalanche mortalities occur between Oct – February and in each end of the season
  • They are also at higher elevations in the autumn and spring. The ones that are dying are the ones that are taking more risks.
  • 50 – 60 percent of area goats live here, are avalanche prone
  • Avalanches subsidize carnivores – they are used by a lot of different animals once killed
• Mountain goats in coastal SE Alaska are migratory. They live in alpine in summers but move lower in the winter to avoid snow pack. In Haines/Skagway the weather is drier and colder and sometime the goats will live year-round in mountain habitat – where they choose to live affects their risk to avalanches
• Avalanches kill a lot of goats!
  • On average about 7% of population is dying from avalanches each year. However, that varies year to year. If mortality occurs at that level, the population of goats grows at about 1.5% each year
  • It can take 11 years for recovery from avalanches. If 20% mortality is occurring, it can decline population 15%
• What is the impact on climate change on mountain goats? How is snow influencing survival? What about summer weather? Under most scenarios most are likely to do more poorly than they are today. Tree lines are going up the mountain and less alpine habitat
  • Key drivers in avalanches are structural weaknesses in the snow pack. You can have avalanches without a lot of snowfall. High snowfall, persistent weak layers
  • Climate change impact on Avalanches- In SE there is forecasted to be less alpine snow, but more rain on snow. This could be unfavorable for goats.
• Local mountain goat populations and trends around Hoonah
  • In Glacier Bay – there are good densities of goats in east parm and central coast, but up the west arm in Marble mountain and Dundas there are fewer goats
  • 1985 there was a goat survey in GBNP. They used similar methods. Many of the area there was in decline. In the west part of the bay there was a slight increase.

Questions from HSC Members

• Can dead goat fur be collected for weaving?
• Dead goats – could still be used for weaving and horns?
• How many places in SE are they studying the goats? 4 different areas. Chilkat valley, east side of Lynn Canal, Baranof, On Cleveland peninsula
• Are populations declining? Populations were about 10,000 in SE Alaska, in Eastern Lynn Canal berners – was about 700 but it declined by 40% due to severe winter and is at about 250-300. Population trends varied place to place. Some places they are declining, but like on Baranof populations are slowly increasing. This could be due to avalanches, predation from wolves, bad winters, hot summers
• Are new predators moving into areas? On mainland there are more types of predators. Baranof doesn’t have wolves, only bears. Mountain goats are pretty good at avoiding predation
• variation in avalanches – is there a relationship between avalanches frequency and avalanche mortality?
• How much is avalanche frequency changing in recent years?
• Are high mortality events more likely to happen after years of low mortality?
• What are the goats’ main diet? Do they migrate for food?
  • Goats eating sedge in the summer – and also alpine wildflowers. May eat limited cottonwood or birch and lichens
  • Winter – eating a lot of lichens especially those from the forest canopy that blow down onto the floor. Will also eat blueberry and hemlock
  • In the fall they can put on 25% of body weight as fat. Deer are more like 12%
• What can we do to monitor goats in excursion more?
  • Avalanche modeling work has happened for the Excursion area. Could be analyzed in the specific area.
  • Goat surveys in that area – can that be done more frequently? Would require funding